Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 251745
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
145 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
A COOL AND NICE DAY TO THE AREA.

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. SOME
CLOUDS MAY ROTATE IN FROM THE NE ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY JUST EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN
COME ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
AVERAGE...AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HOLLAND TO JACKSON. LATEST SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA.

THE CLOUD FCST IS A BIT TRICKY NORTH OF I-96 AS LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE IN THE MID CLOUD DECK. WILL
HAVE SKIES BECOMING PTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY UP NORTH BUT REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. WARMEST HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AND NORTH OF I-96 WHERE
READINGS MAY APPROACH LATER TODAY 60 DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DEALING WITH THE RAIN
CHCS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

THE TREND IN THE LATEST DATA ALL POINTS TOWARD ALMOST ALL
OF THE RAIN MISSING THE CWFA AFTER THE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON THE WRN
FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR MAINE HAS TRENDED QUICKER/STRONGER AND
IS DEFLECTING THE PLAINS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE LIMIT IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN THE
PLAINS. WE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND DRY
PERIOD SETTLE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
MILDER DAY ON SUN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS WITH SOME FROST AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINES FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GROWING SEASON ALREADY AS TEMPS WILL
BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN UP SUN NIGHT TO
PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW
CHCS OF PCPN IN FOR THE DAY ON MON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON MON. SOME MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT IN ALSO WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW IN
NATURE...SO WE ARE THINKING THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RIGHT
NOW FOR THE ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA IS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND EVEN RIDGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND ZERO C MONDAY
NIGHT...TO NEAR +10 C NEXT FRI/SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY TO AROUND 70 BY NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT
SUNDAY/S HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND
THE GFS INDICATING +12 C AT 850MB/S.

HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ECWMF STILL BRINGS IN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE...70-80PCT IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER. ONLY HAVE A 20PCT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NIGHT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS WEAK
SYSTEM AND NUDGE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACCORDINGLY.
OVERALL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE LONG
TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...SOME
INTERMITTANT MVFR CIGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THOSE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER SUNDAY
MORNING FROM ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST A NOTCH BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH MON. WINDS
SHOULD TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARD THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 INTO TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BRIEF RISES
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN RIVERS... BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...NJJ






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