Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 230341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1041 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE RAP AND NEW NAM SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
DRYING OUT FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO JANESVILLE AND WEST. WHILE
NOT SATURATED...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MORE MOIST NORTH TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. EVEN THERE THE MOIST LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LOOK FOR VERY ISOLATED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
BREAK TONIGHT AS AN EXTENSIVE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SHEARED
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE CLEAR AS THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES FROM NAM AND RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK TO DRY
OUT OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT
WILL WEAKEN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A QUIETER DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. THE CAVEAT THURSDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COLD
TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS...WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GOOD
NEWS IS SKIES WILL CLEAR THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SFC
RIDGING TAKES HOLD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA AND
MISSOURI. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN SHIELD BRUSHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY EVENING. BEST OMEGA AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KICK IN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN
END SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE TURNING COOLER ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT FROM SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S LOWER 60S.
THEREAFTER...12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF RUNS ARE TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
ON MONDAY. WHILE PREVIOUS GFS RUN LIFTED IT WELL INTO
MISSOURI...CONSENSUS TRACK IS NOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN LIGHT OF THIS...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS...REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF SHOWING
BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND GENERATING SOME LIGHT PCPN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS A PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL STICK AROUND THE
AREA. THE RAP AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
DRYING OUT LATER THIS EVENING...IMPROVING CIG HEIGHTS. VERY ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
UNTIL A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WAVES WILL BE 1-2 FT UNTIL
THE WINDS WEAKEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPM



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