Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 030828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MAY ARE ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING TROF UPSTREAM. 925 MB
TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING 21-22C ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE ABOUT 4F ABOVE WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOWER 80S.

SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WEST THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. BUT I THINK AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY...WE WILL SEE THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT TOO MUCH WITH
DEEP MIXING AND THIS SHOULD KILL OUR CHANCES FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS OVERALL LOOK DRY
TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROF.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS HELD STEADY WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND FORCING CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER UPSTREAM OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
COULD CLIP AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON...BEFORE THINGS BEGIN
TO STABILIZE. HAIL AND HIGH WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA...THE THERMAL
SUPPORT WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. THE TROF IS WEAKENING ALONG
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE REMAINS OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING STAGE AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALWAYS TRICKY WITH REGARD TO HOW TO HANDLE
POPS/QPF. IT/S POSSIBLE THIS STUFF WILL BE DYING SO QUICKLY THAT
THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH COULD MISS OUT ON NEEDED PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...STALLING THERE MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB CONVERGENCE REMAINS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. NAM
SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE THAN
THE GFS DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA.

CONTINUED TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY...WITH NO
POPS IN THE FAR NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF
FIELDS...WENT WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
INSTABILITY...KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER. MONDAY LOOKS
MILD AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER. TUESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF BRING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
REGION. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS
WILL BE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
FRONT EXIST. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOPEFULLY THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN SOME NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON. BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY
EVENING TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25
KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD STAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET...GIVEN THE
WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD


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