Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150304
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1004 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT
AHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERIC AIRMASS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL HELP AID IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SUPPORTING LOWS NEAR 40 WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS S WI.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DUE TO THE GEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION OF
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
LAKE BREEZE INDUCED COOLING ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S FURTHER INLAND. SKIES LOOK TO CLOUD UP BY THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
UNTIL POTENTIALLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI WED NT AND
THU AM. PWS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 0.40-0.70 INCHES INTO THU
AM BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE AND QPF SUGGESTS
ISOLD SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE WED NT AND DRY EVERYWHERE ON THU. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE ON THU INTO FRI AM IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SOME SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE OVER FAR ERN WI.
SLY WINDS AND 70 DEGREES TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRI AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE
OTHER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. OVERALL...EXPECT IT TO BE A
WEAKER AND DRIER FROPA FOR FRI NT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT NT
WITH MILD TEMPS CONTINUING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SRN WAVE
WILL LIKELY INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL OR ERN
USA AND THEN MERGE WITH THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM
CANADA. MUCH OF THE MERGED TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NWD INTO CANADA
BUT WITH POLAR AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OR EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT DUE TO AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. RH VALUES WILL REDUCE TO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLE THESE WITH ALREADY DRY FUELS
ACROSS THE AREA AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. THUS...ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8
PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MARQUETTE...SAUK...IOWA...AND LAFAYETTE
COUNTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ046-056-057-062-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING


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