Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



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