Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 012006
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
306 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. UPSTREAM AREA
OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MAINLY FALL APART THOUGH AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD. MODELS SHOWING A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW.

SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A VERY
NICE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MILD
TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 MOST
PLACES. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN....DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE. BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE...THOUGH IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
WEAKER...THEY COULD TURN ONSHORE FARTHER SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY DRY AS THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT IS
PROGGING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG A CORRIDOR OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SW WI. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY MOIST LOW LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM
IS SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL PROFILE. WINDS WILL STAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LOOKS TO BE RATHER
GUSTY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER SFC TEMPERATURES DUE TO ENHANCED
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COULD REACH INTO THE
80S FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO S WI.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DECENT 850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SLOWLY MOISTEN. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VALUES NEAR
600 J/KG. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SHEAR IN THE
HODOGRAPH DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON THE INSTABILITY IN OUR
AREA...SOME STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOOK TO BE HIGH...WITH VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES.
SO...GOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. PUT MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE HIGH
PW VALUES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
SHOWING THE BEST TIMING OF CONVECTION TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE 01.12Z NAM MODEL IS SHOWING THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE OUT BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE 01.12Z GFS AND ECWMF ARE
SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION STICKING AROUND UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MONDAY.
KEPT POPS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES POTENTIALLY BECOMING ALL DRY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE PROGGING IT TO STALL AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTH INTO S WI. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE AS THE GFS IS SHOWING MUCH MORE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND THE ECWMF IS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION RETURNING NOT UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. MAINLY CHANCES AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT IS
RATHER SLUGGISH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY ONCE IT REACHES
CENTRAL WI. SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FRONT...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION. 925MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH NEAR 19C...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...KEEPING INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.
SFC CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LOOK TO INCREASE AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARRIVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH UPSTREAM AREA OF RAIN
CONTINUES TO MAINLY FALL APART AS IT HEADS EASTWARD. MODELS
SHOWING A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKE...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE. BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE...THOUGH IF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE WEAKER...THEY COULD
TURN ONSHORE FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY...AS SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY...WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 30 PERCENT MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS A TAD MILDER...THOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD
BE A TOUCH HIGHER AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS


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