Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 130829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

INITIAL WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER SE WISCONSIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI...EXITING THE EAST
BY MID-MORNING.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS OF 15 MPH
TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED TO GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH. RAPID CLEARING
AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 60S WEST. THE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKESHORE COOLING.

THE DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO DROP DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S...WITH
MINIMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. THOUGH GRASSES
AND BRUSH WILL BE INITIALLY WET...THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DRY THEM OUT BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...NOT A GOOD
DAY FOR BURNING.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR ALLOWING ENOUGH COOLING
AFTER SUNSET FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERSION...DECOUPLING
THE SURFACE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAT SLOWLY EASE
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH SOME MID 30S IN
LOW SPOTS.

.SHORT TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY.

THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PROPAGATES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL LOW.
THE 13.00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH IT
STILL HAS THE BETTER 500-300MB PV ADVECTION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO HAS THE STRONGEST 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM/GFS NO WHERE NEAR IT
WHICH IS WHY IT IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE 13.00Z GFS MOISTENS UP
OVERNIGHT AND GIVES A BRIEF SHOT AT THIS RAIN AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN AS WELL. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS NOTED
ON ANY OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS/FIELDS...SO EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE
A FAIRLY LIGHT RAIN IF IT DOES OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

RIDGING THEN SETS UP IN THE LOW LEVELS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN OUTLIER IS THE 13.00Z CANADIAN WHICH PRODUCES A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE 13.00Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY UNDER THE RIDGING. HAVE KEPT SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THERE TO COVER THE CANADIAN SOLUTION.
BEYOND THIS...THE FOCUS GOES TO SUNDAY AND WHETHER THE RAIN WILL
TAKE LONGER TO GET INTO THE REGION DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
THE 13.00Z GFS IS FASTER IN COMPARISON TO THE 13.00Z ECMWF FOR
THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND BRINGS SOME RAIN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH...WHILE IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR...ARE ONLY TEMPORARILY
DROPPING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. CURRENT PACE OF
PRECIPITATION HAS IT CLEARING MADISON AROUND 11Z...KUES AROUND
12Z...KMKE 1230Z AND KENW 1315Z AND 1330Z. STRONG WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS SPREAD IN BEHIND TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AROUND AFTER SUNSET. COULD BE A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK EASE THIS
EVENING. VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THOUGH WINDS HAVE
EASED AS BAGGY GRADIENT WITH SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE
NEARSHORE AREA. TROUGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE NEARSHORE...WITH WEST
WINDS INCREASING BACK TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NIGHT
TIME DECOUPLING OF WINDS SHOULD BRING SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA BY THE
01Z/8 PM/ EXPIRATION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.