Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

DRY AND SUNNY TO START THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION.
SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG UPPER LIFT WITH CVA AHEAD OF SHORT MOVES
INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS/CROSS
SECTIONS DEPICTING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER ABOVE 10K FT THAN GFS
COINCIDENT WITH THIS LIFT...BUT ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY
DRY BELOW 10K FEET...REFLECTING THE DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
WITH THE HIGH.

CURRENT SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITHIN NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE RETURN/POOLING LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BUT SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH AN ATTENDANT SHARP REDUCTION IN FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING,

ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FAR WEST MORE FOR
COLLABORATION... BUT WILL BE HARD TO GET ANY PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DEEP DRY LAYER AND WEAKENING
FORCING.

SLOWLY RISING 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWING A LIGHT
LAKE BREEZE THAT KEEPS AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE LAKE IN THE
50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

DECENT UPPER LEVEL LIFT CROSSES REST OF THE REGION WITH SHORT
WAVE THIS EVENING...BUT LAYERS BELOW 5K FEET NEVER SATURATE...AND
LOWER LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS RAPIDLY AHEAD OF TROUGH. WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY WITH ONLY CLOUDS MARKING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE LOWS IN
THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
AREA. ONSHORE WINDS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON MAY KEEP COOLER
TEMPERATURES THERE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S ON
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ON SUNDAY.

MOISTURE IS MEAGER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...DESPITE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY AS WELL...WITH BEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE COMBINATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

KEPT SOME POPS FOR SUNDAY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED OR
REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED
CAPE...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST. SPC KEPT
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. SHOULD BRING SOME NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TAKING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS MONDAY...STALLING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEPT POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE BREAKS
DURING THIS TIME. GFS WAS SHOWING WEAK CAPE...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS DIFFER MORE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH BOTH SHOWING SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE FORECAST. WILL SEE INCREASING VFR CLOUDS...MAINLY ABOVE 10K
FT...MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL NOT LOWER MORE
THAN 5K FEET WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAX TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 65
AND 70 DEGREES...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 30
PERCENT WEST OF A RIPON...WATERTOWN TO DELAVAN LINE. SW WINDS WILL
BE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH...WITH GUSTS BELOW 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


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