Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE REMNANTS OF A 1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAIRLY WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA...AS HIGHER ISENTROPIC OMEGA
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM US.

HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE 18Z
HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH QPF BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEANED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MID 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW AND
500 MB SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WETTER PERIOD FOR MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOLER PERIOD
WITH THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TONIGHT...UNTIL A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS...WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF
SITES.

PLACED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO TAFS DUE TO CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...CONSSHORT...GLAMP...AND SREF ENSEMBLES. PLACED MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN KUES...KMKE AND KENW.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
KMKE AND KENW TAF SITES...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME DEGREE OF LLWS...WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC. LLWS WAS BORDERLINE FOR MKE BETWEEN 04Z TO 07Z
TONIGHT. KEPT LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SHEAR VALUES. WILL LET THE EVENING
AVIATION FORECASTER HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DEW POINTS LOOK TO STILL BE LOW
THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD


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