Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A VERY WEAK FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND IT REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
VERY LOW AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW...THAT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WON/T BE VERY
STRONG AND WILL LIMIT IT/S USUAL COOLING INFLUENCE. QUIET THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DRY
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S NEAR THE LAKE.

THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY DELAY
THE ADVANCE OF MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEING DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THIS DRY FLOW TENDS TO
BEAT BACK ADVANCING MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOWING WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
TO THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME VARIATION AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW.

850 MB LOW TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THAN THE
SURFACE LOW...AGAIN WITH VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS. THERE ARE
VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK SUNDAY.

AIR COLUMN ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SLOW MOISTENING
SUNDAY...SATURATING LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CONTINUED
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. IT SHIFTS SLOWLY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE OPENING AND SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
IN THE WEEK.

SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING DURING THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF WITH LOW AND WARM FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS IS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...VERSUS THE ECMWF IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL FLOW IS WEAK
WITH WINDS BELOW 10KTS. EXPECT A NORTHEAST TO EAST LAKE BREEZE TO
KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KMKE AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT KUES
AND KENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


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