Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE LARGE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO CANADA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. THUS COOL TEMPS AND ISOLD
INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. THERE
COULD BE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHERE A
SFC TROUGH AND SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE FOCUSED. OTHERWISE
FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MORE CLEARING TNT WITH LOWS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIDING
TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THUS...CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...A CONSENSUS TRACK FROM THE MODELS. THIS FEATURE
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE QPF SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING IN DECENT MOISTURE IN THE 650 MB TO
800 MB LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT PER GFS...WITH THE NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE. USED CONSENSUS POPS WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MOISTURE...WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY GET
COLD ENOUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

CONTINUED POPS INTO SATURDAY...AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND BRINGS LIGHT QPF TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH BRINGING 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THAN THE ECMWF. STILL...BOTH MODELS
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE REGION
DRY. THUS...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE DURING THIS TIME.

GFS THEN BRINGS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY. A POTENT 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIES IT...BRINGING QPF TO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH FEATURE. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND
HAVE LOWER END POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FROM 3.5-5.0 KFT IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH ISOLD SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SRN CANADA. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL. BRISK AND GUSTY WNWLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. FOR TNT...SKIES WILL BECOME MO CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY
WITH LESSENING WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z THU AS BRISK AND
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE AROUND A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SRN CANADA. BY SUNSET...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WILL SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO DROP THE WINDS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD


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