Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 122010
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INITIAL MORE COMPACT VORT HEADING ENE THROUGH ERN IA/NRN IL.
SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF
ENHANCEMENT ON IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. HRRR BRINGS
LIGHT QPF INTO THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE SOME POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WAS GOING TO GO WITH HIGHER HRRR/CONSSHORT POPS
BUT PER COLLAB WITH KLOT THE LINGERING DRY AIR AND 30 DEGREE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY HAVE A SAY IN HOW FAR NE THIS INITIAL AREA
IS ABLE TO ADVANCE. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIP WITH PRIMARY UPPER
WAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK TO SWEEP
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN THE FAR EAST. ELEVATED
CAPE IS RATHER MARGINAL BUT STILL SOME SO OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION
OF THUNDER. TEMPS TO STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH MAIN STORY BEING THE DRY AND
GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE
60S SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTED TROUGH. ANY
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICK DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL MOVE TO SRN
WI AND NRN IL BY 12Z TUE AND REACH LOWER MI BY 00Z WED. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ENSUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE EASTERN ONE
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED.

AN INCREASING ESELY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER SE CO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM TX TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MORE OF AN ELY FLOW WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS ON WED ESPECIALLY
OVER ERN WI VIA THE COLD LAKE.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WED NT AND THU BUT WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY
CLOSE TO SRN WI TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF LGT RAIN. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FRI NT WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED OVER SRN WI. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT
WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COUPLE DIFFERENT FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
PERIOD. ONE ARRIVES THIS EVENING. COMPACT WAVE LIFTING ENE FROM ERN
IA. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT RAIN COMES ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN A BREAK BEFORE PLAINS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY. THEN GUSTY WEST WIND REGIME
TAKES HOLD MONDAY WITH MORNING CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH A POTENTIAL LULL TONIGHT WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE TONIGHT...THEN WEST WINDS RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
WAVE ACTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS OPEN WATERS ON MONDAY WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING


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