Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 161809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN MN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...GENERATED A FEW SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF MN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION DID NOT MEASURE. EVEN THIS MORNING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE THAN
SPRINKLES...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DEW PTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER -SHRA ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE FROM TSRA
COMPLEXES ACROSS NEBRASKA EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MN.
THEREFORE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRE WX CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS SFC HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI-SAT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING EMANATING FROM THE GOMEX SLOWLY ERODES SEWD.
COINCIDENTALLY...A LONGWAVE TROF DISTURBANCE WILL COME ONSHORE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE SWRN
DEEP LOW WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKING ROLES IN THE COMING
DAYS. WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE FEATURES WELL W OF THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND RIDGING STILL HOLDING FORT OVER THE REGION FOR
FRI...FRI WILL HAVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPS RISING TO THE LWR 70S. THE SWRN LOW WILL THEN BECOME CAUGHT
IN THE SRN JET STREAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING NEWD...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IS THAT IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING WRN
CANADIAN UPR LOW...SUCH THAT BY SAT NIGHT A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH GOMEX MOISTURE BRING BROUGHT
WELL NEWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
TROF...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROF
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
ACRS THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THERE IS GREATER
CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA THAN THE
WI PORTION...AS SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE RESIDUAL ENOUGH OVER WI TO
PREVENT DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR. HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM INDICATE A FURTHER EWD SPREAD OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND AT A FASTER PACE BEHIND AN EFFICIENTLY
DEGRADING TROF SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WRN WI FOR SAT
AFTER WITH HIGHER POPS GOING WWD...AND THEN ALL AREAS INCRS TO AT
LEAST LIKELY FOR SAT NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS SO
HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION. THE INCRS IN CLOUDS ON SAT WILL HOLD
BACK TEMPS A BIT COMPARED TO FRI...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SUN-MON...THE UPR LOW OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES THE DOMINANT
UPR LVL FEATURE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE
CENTRAL CONUS UPR LOW...BECOMING A PROMINENT AND EXPANSIVE UPR LVL
TROF. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW IS A MERGING SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A SOGGY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN ONE HALF
AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AS HIGHS ON SUN ONLY HIT THE MID 50S FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPR LOW STILL SPINNING
OVER THE REGION THRU LATE DAY MON...WORKING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MRNG TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHWRS FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TUE-WED...THE UPR TROF...WHILE NOT CENTERED OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WILL STILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AS IT EXPANDS OVER
ERN NOAM BUT WILL STILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS
FLANKS THROUGH THE WFO MPX CWFA. THUS...OCNL RAIN SHWRS...AND
OVERNIGHT -RA/-SN SHOWERS...STILL POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH COVERAGE NOR AMOUNTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS
SLGT-LOW CHC MENTION. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO RUN COOL AND BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE A NORTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE WINDS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT MAGNITUDE...BUT SHOULD SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENIGN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN MVFR/-RA...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. WINDS E AT
10G20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS BECOMING NW
AT 10G15KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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