Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 032024
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM...A COLD FRONT MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS REDWOOD FALLS TO
BUFFALO AND MORA MINNESOTA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED IN THE EASTERN
PART OF MN AND SURGE FASTER IN SW MN. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO MORE SFC MOISTURE
IN CENTRAL MN COMPARED TO SC MN WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT
REACHED YET. THIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE WHERE MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT.

REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHRA NEAR HURON SD WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN SW/SC MN ARND 4-5 PM AS THIS WAVE MOVES
ENE ACROSS MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT
WITH MORNING SHRA/TSRA...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...NE TO NW
WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA LATER TODAY. POPS/WX
GRIDS REFLECT THIS CURRENT TREND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
IA/MN BORDER NE TO KEAU...BUT CONTINUED HIGHER CHC POPS AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN DUE TO GREATER MLCAPES. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN WITH THE WEAKEST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER.
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSRA WILL OCCUR AFT
3 PM...TO 8 PM FROM MANKATO NORTHEAST TO RED WING/SOUTHERN SUBURBS
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND FROM NEW RICHMOND TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS
WHERE BOTH BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SC/SE MN
AND INTO WC WI DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS MN. THERE DOES REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER
CHC POPS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT/MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 70
FOR AFTN HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CDFNT FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL SETTLE OVER MI/IL/IA/MO MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF TOUCH OF HIGH PRES TO SCOOT
ACRS THE AREA AND SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE S OF
THE MPX CWFA EARLY MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CO/KS REGION MON NIGHT AND PICKS UP THE REMNANTS
OF THIS FNT AND UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY TO SLY...THIS
STALLED FNT WILL START TO TREK NWD AS A WMFNT. A DEEPENING TROF
OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF GOMEX MOISTURE INTO
THE MID-UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TUE INTO WED...AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAIN WITH THE WMFNT PLUS THE ADDED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCH QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUE-WED. EMBEDDED SHTWV DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROF WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE POCKETS OF ENHANCED
LIFT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING PWATS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES. THE WMFNT MAY HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING ENTIRELY N OF THE MPX
CWFA...POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR...WED-THU AND
THIS WOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR
WED-THU. IT WOULD ALSO ENHANCE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
INVOF THE WMFNT SO THIS MAY ALSO ENHANCE QPF AMTS. THE CDFNT OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA FRI MRNG...ALLOWING FOR A
REDUCTION OF POPS FRI INTO SAT...BUT THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
FNT FORCES MAINTAINING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...FOR SUN...
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE AS THE CDFNT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST TO
THE E OF THE CWFA WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SWRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND RIDES NE ALONG IT...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DRAGGING S-CENTRAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
SYSTEM. OVERALL...A VERY WET PATTERN IS CERTAINLY IN STORE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE LOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER VALUES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE BEHIND
THE CDFNT OF SUN BUT WHEN THE FNT LIFTS BACK N...WARMER AIR THEN
RE-TAKES COMMAND AND BRINGS HIGHS FROM THE 60S MON-TUE BACK TO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WED-THU. THE NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI THEN ALLOWS HIGHS
TO DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN WAS NOT ADVERTISED WELL IN
THE SHORT TERM MODELS INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS DO HAVE
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN THRU THE
EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SC/SE SD
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER ON MORE TSRA BY MID/LATE ALONG
THIS FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW ON THE CONFIDENCE SCALE. BEST BET IS CONTINUE THE VCTS DURING
THE AFTN...WITH A TEMPO WHICH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
HIGHEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR AFT 3Z...WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA POSSIBLE AT KEAU AFT 3Z...THRU 6Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AND BECOME MORE N/NE MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...AM FOLLOWING THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ON THE
EXPANSION OF HIGHER RADAR RETURNS ARND 20-22 NW OF THE
TERMINAL...AND MOVING THRU THE TERMINAL AREA BETWEEN 22-01Z.
TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE TERMINAL WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN TSRA AFT
22Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG IT WILL OCCUR AND ENDING TIME.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A MORE NE
FLOW MONDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR EARLY. SHRA/TSRA AFTN/EVE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS. WINDS SE
10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT



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