Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 142103
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW REVOLVE AROUND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS - PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. DESPITE THE
DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO THE COLD VALUES OF
YDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND INCREASINGLY EXPANSIVE
CIRRUS BY LATE TONIGHT. VERY SHALLOW INVERSIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK INCREASE IN TEMPS AND SOUTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE INVERSION MIXES OUT BETWEEN 8-10 AM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A COUPLE OF S/W TROFS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROF/COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND A SHIFT TO STRONGER NW WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM UP WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER
QUALITY MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/OPACITY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS..ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN
CLOUDS FROM 8-12 KFT AFTER 15Z WED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY S/SE WINDS /ESP WEST/ WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY 00-02Z TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KAXN/KRWF BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-15Z.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 14-16Z WED AT ALL
TAF SITES..WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD..WITH SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON WED. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-15Z WED WITH WINDS
2KFT AGL SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. SW WINDS BECOMING WNW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. ISOLD VFR RAIN SHOWERS PSBL. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. ESE WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS TEMPS COOL...HUMIDITIES
RISE... AND SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...DESPITE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THAN WHAT
WERE FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH SOME TEMPS NEAR 80 AND HUMIDITIES LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LAND MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FOR EAU CLAIRE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR THE NOON TO 8 PM TIME PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MINNESOTA. HUMIDITIES AND TEMPS ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL NOT BE AS
CRITICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS TODAY...BUT HUMIDITIES IN PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-
     064-073.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>050.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ028.

&&

$$





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