Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 010034
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...TONIGHT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MN RIVER VALLEY SHOULD PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
MOISTURE POOLING/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK /AS ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG.

AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT IN A REASONABLE MANNER...WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO
THE TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS GREATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IS THE MAIN
CONCERN INITIALLY. THEN FIRE WEATHER AND WIND CONCERNS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING LOOKS JUSTIFIED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL USE A
COMPROMISE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MAKES PROGRESS EAST INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THUNDER
THREAT TRAIL OFF THROUGH 06Z THU. STILL HAVE SOME 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS
35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND DECENT MIX OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD SOME LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ONCE AGAIN.

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL SEE SOME CHANCE OF A MIXED
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVES ASHORE WITH BRIEF RIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS ZONE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME SE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM KRWF THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHWARD. GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 40 TO 45
KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY AS WELL. SPEEDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL
BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VARIOUS WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN KRWF...KMSP AND KRNH IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME AND THEN
SPREADING ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. HENCE...PROB GROUPS ARE IN NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

KMSP...INDICATED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 24G33KT BETWEEN 18Z
AND 22Z WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-25G35 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ076>078-083>085-091>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ064-065-067-
     073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH


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