Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 302125
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
425 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
WC WI AND EC MN WHICH KEPT WINDS LIGHT FROM THE NE/EAST TODAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HAS ALLOWED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN FAR WESTERN MN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURRED... RH FIELDS LOWERED INTO THE TEENS IN FAR
WC MN. THESE LOWER DEW PTS AND RH FIELDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN TONIGHT. THEREFORE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS /GENERATING
OCCASIONAL SHRA/ SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE BEHIND THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN WESTERN MN AFT
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV NOTED
ON WV IMAGERY IN MT/WY THIS AFTN AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN DILEMMA FOR
FRIDAY IS HOW FAR EAST ACROSS MN DOES THIS AREA OF SHRA
CONTINUE...OR DOES IT WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES BEHIND THE
WEAKENING TROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...SO INITIALLY THE
DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN EASTERN MN WILL BE LIMITED.
SO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO WEAKENING...HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD ON POPS BY 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHRA IN SC/EC MN DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY FOCUSING SOUTH INTO IOWA BY THE AFTN.
WITH THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED -SHRA POSSIBLE...KEPT
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN EC/SC MN AND WC WI. WC/SW MN WILL
LIKELY RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

BY THE TIME FRIDAY NIGHT ARRIVES...THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...AS WILL ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MN
WILL EXPAND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSURE ON SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BOTH DAYS STILL LOOK QUITE WARM. THE GOING
FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WAS TWEAKED SLIGHTLY...BUT
GENERALLY VERY SIMILAR HIGHS ARE IN THE FORECAST. USING A MIX DOWN
FROM 775MB INDICATED THE BIAS CORRECTED FORECASTS ARE MORE THAN
LIKELY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S ON SATURDAY. A SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY WITH
EVEN WARMER 850MB TEMPS PUSHING IN...SO LOW TO MID 80S STILL LOOKS
LIKE A SOLID BET. IN FACT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 80S AND
EVEN 90 DEGREES...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DECENT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS A DECENT POOL OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL SURGE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE 70S AND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...AND THE GFS/EC
AGREE THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMEPRATURES ARE FORECAST...WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCES TO GET SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHC OF MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA
FOR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN WC/CENTRAL MN.
OTHERWISE...SE/E/NE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S/SE OVERNIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE SW FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE NE THIS AFTN...E/SE TONIGHT...AND S/SW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. -TSRA/MVFR LIKELY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS S 5-10
KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NW/N BY THE AFTN AND INCREASING.
MON...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.