Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 010920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THIS MORNING AS SLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A 994MB SFC LOW
OVER WRN ND AND A SFC HIGH E OF THE CWA. WAA PICKS UP THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWING APPRECIABLE
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM 925MB TO 700MB. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN WI/WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE ENE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WHILE WEAKENING. ONLY INCLUDED MENTIONS OF THUNDER ALONG
THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSION OF CONVECTION TO
THE SW SHOULD LIMIT CAPE FROM DEVELOPING FARTHER N. SOME OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PORTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI SEEING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE ERN U.P. AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH
SHIFT QUICKLY E AND INCREASE WAA/FORCING BECOMES A GREATER
FACTOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE LOSS OF FORCING DUE TO THE
THROUGH WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF
UPPER MI BY 12Z THU...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS FOR
AFTER 12Z THU.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 50KTS FROM THE S-SW. HIGHEST SFC GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR W AT IRONWOOD AND VICINITY WHERE LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST DUE TO THE BEST SFC WARMING. WITH COOLING OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET UP TO AROUND 60F OVER THE FAR
W...REDUCED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY CENTRAL UPPER MI DUE TO SSE-
SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER. OVER ERN
UPPER MI...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS DOWNWIND EFFECT
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
LOWS TONIGHT ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF WERE SLOWER IN MOVING THE FRONT AND
PCPN OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM. MODEL
COMPROMISE WILL STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER THE EAST
HALF(MAINLY BEFORE 15Z) AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA WITH
THE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHRTWV AND LOW
LEVEL CONV WITH THE SFC TROUGH SUPPORTING PCPN. THE DRY SLOT THEN
MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTH AND WEST AND THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. MIXING AT LEAST TO 7K FT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
25 MPH OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALSO DROP
DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F. THE WINDS AND RH BELOW 25 PCT WILL BRING
ELEVATED RISKS FOR WILDFIRES...ESPECIALLY IF ONLY LIGHT OR NO PCPN
FALLS OVER SOME AREA WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH UPPER
MI THU EVENING WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -12C BY 12Z/FRI.
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR LES...ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED FROM
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING INCLUDED FOR NW FLOW FAVORED
AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...ABOUT 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CLIPPER SHRTWV
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND ONLY MODERATE FORCING...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. A MIX WITH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTH WHERE ENOUGH WARMER AIR LINGERS.

SUN...THERE WERE GREATER DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF ALLOWS ANOTHER
STRONGER SHRTWV TO BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW INTO THE AREA SUN
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A
MORE PROMINENT CONFLUENT NRN STREAM THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND HIGH
PRES INTO THE NRN LAKES REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ244-245.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ265.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ264-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...TITUS


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