Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN INVERTED SFC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY JUST E OF THE CWA WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY W TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CWA AS A RESULT OF WAA TO
THE W OF THE RIDGE. THOSE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MORE
MODERATED IN TEMPERATURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 50S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...COLDEST INLAND. SHOULD SEE MIN RH VALUES OF
20-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH SO FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SFC RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD MN
AND NW ONTARIO AND TROUGH LINGERS FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. WITH LIGHT NE TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. READINGS TO AROUND 50 WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE SOUTH HALF.

THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING
AND A SLIGHT MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z RUNS OF GFS AND GEM AND
23/12Z ECMWF...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 24/00Z
AND 24/12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEFORE
DIVING THE SHORTWAVE SE. THIS SOLN MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHRA
SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE INTO WED MORNING. GIVEN THAT LATEST
ECMWF STILL SHOWS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER THE CWA TUE
INTO WED. CAA IN N-NE FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING SFC HIGH FM CANADA AS
DEPICTED BY 12Z ECMWF WL KEEP TEMPS COOLER WED INTO WED NIGHT
PROBABLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND.

THU-FRI...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AND SINCE BOTH
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM MID-UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS TO BE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED WHICH RESULTS IN A SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD TEMPER THE WARMUP INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FOR LATE WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INSTEAD OF
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLDS EARLY THIS MRNG WELL TO THE
N OF A WARM FNT IN THE UPR MIDWSET...A DRY LLVL NE FLOW OUT OF HI
PRES OVER NW ONTARIO WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS


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