Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 052328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THAT IS KICKING OFF SOME RAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW. THE TROUGH IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WED AND PUSHES UP A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

PCPN AND MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE UP INTO THE WEST WED MORNING AND
AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN...THIS SHOULD DRY UP PCPN FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY OUT THE WEST WED AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST WED
MORNING. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AND TOOK THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST AS THE AIR OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY AND
NOT EXPECTING MUCH PCPN WITH A DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL RESIDE FROM N MANITOBA THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER AND LOWER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY WITH RAIN APPROACHING
FROM THE W-SW. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE IN THE 500MB SW
FLOW OVER THE N PLAINS.

SE FLOW IN THE EVENING AT THE SFC WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE S
OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS AND 850MB TEMPS
OF 11-12C SHOULD KEEP DOWNSLOPE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S FAR W. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE LOW 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR W DOWNSLOPE AREAS LOOKS
REASONABLE. OTHER LOCATIONS OVER THE E AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR...ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MODERATE RH VALUES
IN THE FWF.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR THURSDAY...WITH FCST
SOLUTIONS STILL GOING ON THE IDEA THAT PRECIP WILL EITHER END UP
JUST FAR W OF MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO OUR S. MUCH OF THAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO OUR SW. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SW...CLOSER TO THE NEARING COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE NW HALF OF
MN. THERE IS STILL SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST
SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. THE 05/00Z ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS SLOWER NOW
THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM 24HRS AGO...WHEN THE ECMWF WAS
ON THE FAST SIDE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A BLENDED SOLUTION IS
MOST REASONABLE...AS THE ECMWF IS BACKED UP BY THE SLOWER 05/00Z
CANADIAN AND WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUICKEST IT IS RUNNING IN
LINE WITH THE 05/12Z NAM.

LOOK FOR THE LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AROUND 06Z FRIDAY TO EJECT
NE...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT OVER E MN/FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW RIDING UP THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE S PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ACT TO STALL THE FRONT
ACROSS LOWER MI /AND POSSIBLY EVEN FAR E UPPER MI/ FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FRIDAY WITH
WINDS OUT OF A MORE SW DIRECTION. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVER 30KT GUSTS. WHILE THE GFS AGREES...IT DOES HAVE A
STRONGER INVERSION SET UP E WITH LIMIT MIXING...AND OVERALL LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE W.

OVER THE W TWO-THIRDS OF UPPER MI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING...BUILDING IN FROM W CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z SUNDAY. WILL AGAIN FOLLOW A BLENDED
SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES COMPARING THE ECMWF PLACEMENT OF THE LOW OVER S MN/SW WI
AT 12Z AND THE GFS WHICH HAS IT STILL OVER NE/KS. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY DRIFT ACROSS S WI /CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION/ ON
MONDAY...AND ACROSS S LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING E. WITH
EITHER SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW TO OUR S...WILL CONTINUE THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE S HALF OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TNGT WITHIN LINGERING DRY AIRMASS. BUT STEADY
S FLOW/INCRSG MSTR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER WRN UPR MI OVERNGT/WED
MRNG WL RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SHRA/MVFR CIGS AT
IWD. CMX AND SAW SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR NO WORSE THAN VFR
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCRSG CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS TROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07


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