Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 011901
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MN INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE U.P. TONIGHT. OTHER THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE. HAVE MARGINAL POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR
WEST WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MENTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIMITED DUE TO THE REMAINING DRY AIR IN
PLACE AS WELL AS THE WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE A VERY QUIET WEATHER DAY OVERALL WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE U.P. AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA HELPS TO DRIVE WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THE STRONGEST COMPONENT COMING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SINCE THE OVERALL
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...PLACING THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SATURDAY...A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NRN CONUS
AS LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NAM CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SINCE THE MODELS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...NO PCPN CHANCE WAS
MENTIONED...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEM.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
ADVANCING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC/850 DEWPOINTS NEAR 10C AND PWAT
VALUES AOA 1.25 INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-
1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-6M/0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT/20-30KT MAY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.

MON AND TUE... FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z MON...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR E EARLY...PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.
HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH TUE.

WED AND THU...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVES IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW COULD BRING PCPN INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH THE BEST
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. PCPN CHANCES WED MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NNE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION BY THU ALONG WITH
THE NEARING SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLY TSRA INTO THE AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
THROUGH THE KSAW TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. THIS
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
STATES...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.