Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 302329
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE WEST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG THIS MORNING THAT SHOWS UP AS DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND
IS HEADING SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MORE TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR TUE.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT AND TUE
OVER THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING AS WELL AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS FORECAST.

MAJOR CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT THE POPS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT AND THEN TO HAVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR TUE
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE AS THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUE WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN IN THE WEST
WITH THE WARMER AIR IN THAT AREA ALOFT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. DID LOWER HIGHS
A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGING MORE
CLOUDS AND PCPN TO THE AREA FOR TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL BE QUIET AS
A SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. WILL KEEP LINGERING CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BELOW THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AROUND 850MB. THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE APPEARING FAIRLY SHALLOW OPTED TO
KEEP POPS OUT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN CROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS WAVE AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ALLOW MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WHILE THIS WILL DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW
700MB LEADING TO EVAPORATION OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL.
THUS...WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ONTARIO...BUT STILL KEEP SLIGHT OR CHANCES OVER NORTHERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS 2-5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE GUSTS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH...WHICH IN TURN DEPENDS ON THE SURFACE
DIRECTION DUE TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IT
APPEARS THE SURFACE WINDS ARE TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHEN COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...WHICH LEADS TO SOME
CONCERN ON HOW HIGH THE WINDS AND TEMPS WILL GET OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT MORE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. AS FOR HIGHS...WHERE THE FLOW ISN/T OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S. MEANWHILE...THE
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE EAST IN THE UPPER 30S OR 40S.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE TIED
TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST POPS
OVER THE EAST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS LINGERING AND ALSO
TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER IN THE EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST.
OPTED TO ADD IN A MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE POCKET OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NOSE OF MUCAPE EDGES INTO THAT AREA. BUT
WITH THE INSTABILITY WEAKENING DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY HEAD EAST...OPTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE THUNDER POTENTIAL DURING THE NIGHT AS IT
HEADS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL U.P.

AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE
U.P. WILL BECOME DRY SLOTTED AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.P. AND WITH THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR...A FAIRLY WARM DAY TOO. WITH MOST OF THE MODELS NOW TRENDING
TOWARDS THE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND
A FEW 60S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS...THINK
EVEN THE EASTERN U.P. WILL GET INTO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
THE FLOW OFF THE LAND AREAS. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW
COVER OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC
FIRE WEATHER DAYS FROM PAST U.P. FIRES. DID TREND DEWPOINTS DOWN
OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
A STRONG INVERTED-V PROFILE.

THAT WARM DAY WILL BE THE LAST FOR A WHILE...AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
TO THE AREA AND INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW
THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICKLY ARRIVING
RIDGE. WILL LINGER THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES INTO FRIDAY...BUT BELIEVE
THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REALLY DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WILL JUST INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
EXPECT THERE TO BE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES. THUS...WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

EVEN THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY BRUSH IWD EARLY THIS EVNG ON THE NRN
FRINGES OF A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD THRU MN INTO WI...DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES OVER ERN LK SUP WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL 3 TAF SITES TNGT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW ON TUE
WL MOVE OVER UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RA TO MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO
FALL AT IWD...WENT NO LOWER THAN VFR VSBY/CIG FOR THAT AIRPORT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07


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