Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220911
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR W UPPER MI THIS
MORNING. GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOST
ACCUMULATION WHEN VIEWING LOCAL WEB CAMS. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LOOK SPOTTY...MOVING SE AROUND 20KTS. GIVEN THE OFF AGAIN AND ON
AGAIN NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET A
HANDLE ON EXACT AMOUNTS. VIS AT IWD FOR EXAMPLE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 1SM AND 10SM ALL NIGHT LONG. SNOW HAS MELTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS...AND THEN ACCUMULATES ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED TRAFFIC
AND QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW. STILL EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2-4IN OVER THE
TRADITIONAL NW WIND SNOW BELTS FROM IWD AND WAKEFIELD UP THROUGH THE
SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THE HURON MOUNTAINS...AND E OF
MARQUETTE FROM AROUND AU TRAIN THROUGH GRAND MARAIS. WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DOMINANT BANDING AND THE SLOW ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MORE COUNTIES THAN GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON IN
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THAT GOES UNTIL 16Z.

850MB TEMPS IN THE COOL NW FLOW HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND -10 TO -
13C...WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SET UP E OF MQT TO GRAND MARAIS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COOLER AIR AND LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE
MAINLY OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING E OF MQT /WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY THAN MOST OF THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING/. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO
NEAR 40F S CENTRAL /AROUND 15F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/.

DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE LATE APRIL SUN SHOULD HELP LIFT SOME OF THE
MORE SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS...AND MAKE THEM EVEN MORE SPOTTY AS WE
MORE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE
LESS HELP FROM THE 500MB LOW THAT WAS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED ACROSS E ONTARIO.
STILL...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE NW CWA BY AROUND 15Z AND
CONTINUE OVER THE SE BY 18Z. THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN AND WEAKEN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM N CANADA
EVER SO SLOWLY BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE W CWA. THIS WILL FURTHER
DISRUPT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

NAM SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU WITH MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. NAM
SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA ON THU WITH MOISTURE MOVING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. MOVES AWAY...THE WRAPAROUND LAKE ENHANCED PCPN WILL SLOWLY WIND
DOWN AND HAVE IT DRYING OUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST ON THU INTO THU NIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES OR POPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH MORE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S. THE 500 MB
LOW AND TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS GETS SHEARED OUT BY 12Z SUN AND
IS REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING MOVES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER SAT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT AND THEN GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH TUE AS A SFC
FRONT IS WELL OFF TO THE WEST AT THAT TIME AND PRODUCES SOME OVER
RUNNING PCPN THAT IS OFF TO THE WEST MOSTLY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT...SHSN
WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY AT KIWD/KCMX UNDER USPLOPE
NW WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THRU MID MORNING. TYPICAL FOR SHSN...THERE WILL BE
FLUCTUATION WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR AND MVFR...THOUGH LIFR
MAY BE MORE FREQUENT IN THE FEW HRS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. INTO THE
AFTN...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AS SHSN INTENSITY DIMINISHES.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER VIS/CIG AT KSAW. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR THRU MID MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THIS EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO NEAR 35KT GALES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER N AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS JAMES
BAY WILL FILL LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE JAMES BAY LOW...WILL
SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA AND GREENLAND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF



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