Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 170727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS



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