Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 020912
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WRN NRN ONTARIO IS RESULTING IN A SFC
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. ONLY A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN IS LEFT OVER LAND
AREAS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAIN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. TREND OF DECREASING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES E WHILE WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING E OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TO ERN UPPER MI. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER E
WITH AFTERNOON PRECIP...SO THINK PRECIP /IF ANY/ WILL BE MINIMAL.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS/RH AND WINDS
TODAY AS MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO NEAR 600MB OVER WRN UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAX TEMPS TODAY AROUND 60 OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER
MI...WHILE ERN UPPER MI WILL BE IN THE 50S. DUE TO THE VERY DEEP
MIXING...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING MIN RH VALUES NEAR OR BELOW
20 PERCENT OVER WRN UPPER MI. WHILE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING
LAYER WILL BE AROUND 60KTS...DO NOT THINK THAT WINDS WILL GUST THAT
HIGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 35 KTS NEAR IRONWOOD AND HOUGHTON.
ACTUALLY MEASURED GUST TO 50 MPH AT KIWD WITH TREES...POWER LINES
AND EVEN A RADIO TOWER DOWNED AROUND MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...BUT THAT
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS THAT HELPED MIX INTO THE LLJ WITH 60+KT
WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SFC. DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL
APPROACH THESE LEVEL TODAY AS 60KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO NEAR OR
ABOVE 600MB. WITH THE COMBO OF WIND AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS...FIRE
DANGER IS ELEVATED OVER THE W TODAY...BUT EXISTING SNOW IN THE WOODS
AND WET SOILS WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FIRES.

LIGHT UPSLOPE/LES IS POSSIBLE IN NW WINDS SNOWBELTS LATE TONIGHT AS
NW WINDS BRING IN 850MB TEMPS AROUND -11C.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C BY 12Z/FRI. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES...THE FCST MAINTAINS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EARLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST LOCATIONS FAVROED BY NNW FLOW.
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER LINGERING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIMIT ANY LES POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN EXPECT FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ABOUT
25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN A NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL IT
COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.

SUN...STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.
THE 12Z/01 AND 00Z/02 ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROMINENT SFC-850 MB WARM
FRONT OVER WI DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIV INCREASES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET E OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PCPN FARTHER
SOUTH.

MON-WED...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE 00Z/02 ECMWF STILL SHOWS
CONFLUENT FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES ON MON
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/01 RUN...BUT BEGINS TO TREND FARTHER NORTH WITH
PLAINS SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT BRINGING PCPN INTO THE
AREA. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM-NH CONTINUE TO BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW
AND ASSOC WARM FRONT AND SNOW FARTHER NORTH...SPREADING SNOW INTO
UPPER MI MON. MODELS CONSENSUS FAVORS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE
UPPER MI MON AND ESPECAILLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE GREATEST
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECTED DRIER WEATHER BY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HRS AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE SFC
WINDS REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED THAN AT KIWD. KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE HAS
BEEN SHOWING S WINDS OF 40-50KT AT 500FT AGL SO FAR DURING THE
NIGHT. SCT -SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MAY AFFECT KSAW. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSAW. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS
SURGES INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD FROPA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY
TO 30KT OR MORE THIS AFTN AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY AT KIWD UNDER VERY
DEEP MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL MOVE E
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER N ONTARIO. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE MID MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR A
WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...A HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...AS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS


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