Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241721
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT E TO NE LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM THE KEWEENAW E...AND S-SE LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE MI
FROM AROUND ESC AND S. WILL LESS MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT DEW POINTS E OF ESC NEAR LAKE MI TO BE FAIRLY LOW
WITH RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 25 PERCENT. UNDER THE SFC
HIGH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH...LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

THERE ARE MANY CONCERNS WITH THE MODEL INDICATED RAIN ALONG THE WI
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF THE SW WILL BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...CONVECTION
DOWNSTREAM MAY ALSO IMPACT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE N SHOWERS. TAKING
A LOOK AT INSTABILITY...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL SW OF THE CWA
EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER.

PW VALUES THAT BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 0.10IN DURING THE 00-06Z TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOW IMPROVE TO AROUND 0.6IN W TO 0.25IN E
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM W SD
THROUGH W KS AT 12Z SHIFTS TO NW MO. THAT AND THE 850MB TEMPS RISING
FROM AROUND -12C THIS MORNING TO -3C W TO -10C E WILL MEAN THAT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAT WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS
MORNING /ESPECIALLY W AND CENTRAL/. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW
20S TO NEAR 32F /WARMEST NEAR IWD AND MNM/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER A FEW PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED PCPN DURING THE LAST 2
WEEKS...THE PATTERN IS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING ONE THAT FAVORS DRY
WEATHER IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH HUDSON BAY THIS
WEEKEND WILL REDEVELOP W TO THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN HIGH PRES SETTLING S THRU THE PLAINS TO THE
WRN GULF THRU THU NEXT WEEK. END RESULT IS AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN
WITH NO CHANCE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO REACH UPPER MI DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM
HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE N WHERE GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. GRADUAL
WARMING WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OR MOST LOCATIONS BY WED/THU. HOWEVER...00Z
MODEL RUNS CAST DOUBT ON THE WARMTH MIDWEEK. MORE ON THAT LATER.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AFORMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON
BAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPS NOT GETTING HIGHER THAN THE LOWER
40S AT BEST. SOME LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD
WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S ON BOTH DAYS. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
ESTIMATED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS
SAT/SUN AROUND 50F TO THE LWR 50S. SUN MAY END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SAT AT MANY LOCATIONS UNDER A MORE NORTHERLY WIND AS OPPOSED TO
THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY WIND ON SAT. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING
OVER THE W SAT...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE AFTN...SOME MOISTURE MAY BACK IN FROM THE NE FOR SUN...
LEADING TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THAT TIME. MIN TEMPS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR.

SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE S INTO UPPER MI ON MON...SO MON WILL
BE SIMILAR TO SUN. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND SLIGHT
MODERATION OF AIR MASS...MAX TEMPS MON SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES...THIS WAVE MAY END UP DIVING SE OR S TOWARD A SRN TROF OVER
TX/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION PER 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z GEM...
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER HERE. EVEN IF THE GFS WHICH
DRIVES SHORTWAVE THRU THE UPPER LAKES IS CORRECT...LACK OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ANTECEDANT DRY AIR MASS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL OF
ANY PCPN. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH A MORE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE BEFORE DIVING SE...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
OF SHRA SPREADING INTO UPPER MI TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. WITH THIS THE
FIRST RUN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR
NOW.

HEADING INTO WED/THU...GENERAL TREND OF 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
FOR UPSTREAM RIDGING TO BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED...RESULTING IN
SHARPER NW FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE THIS HAS
OFTEN BEEN A FAVORED PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS...THIS TREND
IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAY END UP BEING A CORRECT TREND. THIS
SUGGESTS THE WARMTH (TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL) REFLECTED
IN THE FCST FOR WED/THU (A RESULT OF MORE WEIGHTING FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARMER SOLUTIONS) MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF ALL 3
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CEILINGS/VIS. THE ONLY SMALL
EXCEPTION WILL BE IWD LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE
SOME LIGHT SHRA MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL SETTLE FROM ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS LESS THAN 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A LOW TRACKING S OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW NE WINDS
TO FUNNEL OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...BRINGING A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



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