Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 010919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CLEAR SKIES UNDER UPPER AND SFC RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
(SHOWERS OVER THE WEST ONLY) THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY FROM ERN SASKATCHEWAN TO CENTRAL SD...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED ALOFT ON RADAR OVER MN...BUT
INFREQUENTLY OBSERVED AT THE SFC DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA IT WILL
WEAKEN...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SHOWERS.
MIXING TO OVER 800MB TODAY AND THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL REALLY
LIMIT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE GROUND. ALSO...THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND MODEL MOIST BIAS IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE
LAST 7-10 DAYS LEADS TO FAVORING A DRYER SOLUTION. STILL...INCLUDED
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE W FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS (LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS/...WITH
0.02 INCHES OF LESS PRECIP EXPECTED WHERE/IF IT RAINS.

LAKE BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER LIGHT OVERALL FLOW
WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZES MEETING CLOSER TO
LAKE SUPERIOR THAN LAKE MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO
FIRE CONCERNS AS PROLONGED DRY/WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LEFT FUELS DRY
AND MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE MID 30S E INTERIOR E HALF.

HAVE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT DUE TO
WAA AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SATURDAY...A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NRN CONUS
AS LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NAM CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SINCE THE MODELS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...NO PCPN CHANCE WAS
MENTIONED...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEM.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
ADVANCING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC/850 DEWPOINTS NEAR 10C AND PWAT
VALUES AOA 1.25 INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WAA WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST HALF. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCT/NMRS SHOWERS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SUN EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-
1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-6M/0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT/20-30KT MAY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.

MON AND TUE... FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST AREA
BY 12Z MON...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY MONDAY. THERE IS ONLY A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR E EARLY...PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.
HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH TUE.

WED AND THU...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVES IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW COULD BRING PCPN INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH THE BEST
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. PCPN CHANCES WED MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NNE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION BY THU ALONG WITH
THE NEARING SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLY TSRA INTO THE AREA BY LATE THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. THIS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS


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