Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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