Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 031143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER 18Z TODAY.
SIMILAR STORM COVERAGE AS YDAY THOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE EAST. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST AROUND
10KTS. BASED ON HRRR OUTPUT...ANY TAF SITE MAY BE IMPACTED...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40KTS. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. STORMS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WEST AND CENTRAL BUT HIGHS OVERALL REMAINING
ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TODAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRACK INTO THE VALLEYS AND
PLAINS. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER...AND POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM THE PECOS VALLEY TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...MAINLY OVER DE BACA...CHAVES...CURRY AND ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. DRIER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS PERSISTING SOUTH OF I-40 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS
CENTRAL AND WEST SLIDE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING DOWN BELOW
AVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS COULD
RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS. COORDINATED WITH MAF ON POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION TO SUCCEEDING SHIFTS...BUT
NEW QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
PECOS. IN ADDITION...SPC DAY 2 AND 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PUT THE
EASTERN PLAINS IN A MARGINAL AREA...WITH SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOCUSED OVER DE BACA...CHAVES...ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GFS IS TRENDING A BIT DRIER EARLIER...TUESDAY NIGHT...THAN IT HAD
BEEN...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING AND THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER WITH TX. THEREAFTER...A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT NEW
MEXICO WILL BE ON THE DRY AND WINDY SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
COULD IGNITE ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK AND FORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT
WILL IMPROVE AGAIN OVER THIS MORNINGS READINGS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST...AS GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE PLAINS. RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS.

A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH NM ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD AND BELOW THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN
ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS
SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT STORMS...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH ALL AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A DRY SLOT PUNCHES THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. STILL LOOKING FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HUMIDITIES
WILL STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT...PLUS THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
ABUNDANT RAIN ON MON/TUE...SO NO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND UP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING PERSISTS.
A STRONGER DRY SLOT WILL ALSO PUNCH IN OVER NM ON FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK MAY ARRIVE NEXT SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THRU THIS PERIOD.

VENTILATION VALUES SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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