Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 031716
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
116 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS. A
PLEASANT AFTRN AHEAD UNDER MSTLY SUNNY SKIES / LIGHT W WINDS.
BUMPED UP HIGH TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF SOME 12Z DATA.

PVS DSCN:
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN CONUS FROM WRN
NY/PA DOWN TO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY... RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND IN THE LOW-MID
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST (EXCEPT ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S DUE
TO SOUTH WINDS). FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS STRADDLES THE
ERN US COASTLINE AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SWLY BUT LIGHT. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST (OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT FLATTENS OUT IN
THE PROCESS...KEEPING A MORE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NRN VA/DELMARVA AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFTING
MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE). IF THERE IS
ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY PRESENT...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MON/TUE 80-85...MID- UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED MORNG...
MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES
DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LWR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDDAY SUNDAY FEATURED A FIELD OF CUMULUS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. BASES OF THE CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 8-10K FT WITH AN
USUALLY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
WINDS BELOW 10K FT ARE LIGHT AND AS A RESULT SO ARE THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD RUNNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTN AT ORF DUE TO LOCAL
INFLUENCES.

DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES. UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
MAINLY FROM THE SW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A BIT MORE WIND BY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING. THERE
IS A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS NRN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE
ACROSS MOST OT HE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 AM...THE SCA FOR THE SRN VA WATERS WAS DROPPED ON
SCHEDULE BUT THE SCA FOR THE NC WATERS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM.

AS OF 7 AM...SEAS REMAIN 5-6 FT ACRS NC COASTAL WATERS...STILL
HOVERING NEAR 5 FT AT BUOY 44009 BUT NEARSHORE SEAS AT OCEAN CITY
ARE DOWN TO 3 FT. HAVE ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR COASTAL WATERS N
OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH 10AM FOR SRN VA WATERS AND
EXTENDED THOUGH 1 PM FOR NC WATERS. ALL OF THIS IS SWELL AS WINDS
ARE NOW OFFSHORE FROM THE W/SW AT AROUND 10 KT.

OTHER THAN SEAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO SWELL...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS THEN BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC AND SE VA COAST
MON-WED. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS). FROM MON-WED SEAS LOOK TO AVG 2-4 FT WHILE WAVES IN
THE BAY GENLY 1-2 FT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO
THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER AT BRINGING THAT SFC LOW NORTHWARD
SO ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS PROBABLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/LSA



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