Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 181044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0615 AM UPDATE...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS,
FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED SO WE EXPANDED THE
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS EAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
NOT JUST THE RIVER VALLEYS. AN SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA MENTIONING VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER TO HALF MILE IN SPOTS.
FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE GONE BY MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE, ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS,
DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP CLOSE TO DEW
POINTS RESULTING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS IN ITS
WAKE RESULTING IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO COUNTIES IN NY
AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NE PA ZONES. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE CONTINUE TO NOT
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS THE BEST
ENERGY WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NE AND ALSO THE PROFILES WILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN FAIR
WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DIMINISHING WINDS, DROPPING TEMPS, AND RISING RH VALUES WILL
RESULT IN A QUICKLY DIMINISHING FIRE DANGER AFTER SUNSET. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

FOR SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL DAWN MAINLY SUNNY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

CLOUDS THICKEN UP SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA AHEAD OF A BROAD,
DIGGING H500 MB TROUGH. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE GFS IS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG SE LLJ WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS DECENT SLUG OF QPF WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OR SO LIKELY BY THE TIME THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP
MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL
OVER SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS
AND CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPING.

FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK
DURING THE LATTER PART OF MONDAY THOUGH NOT OPTIMISTIC THERE WILL
BE MUCH SUN. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SLUG OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL DAMP PERIOD.
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF
IT WILL ACCUMULATE. MODELS STILL SIMILAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SFC OCCLUSION IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WED NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO AREA FOR MIDDAY TODAY. EARLY
THIS MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. IFR VALLEY FOG
AT ITH RME ELM SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AND MIX OUT BY 13Z. HAVE A 1
HOUR TEMPO FOR 2SM BR AT RME AND ELM.

LATE MORNING INTO EVENING WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. AROUND 00Z WINDS DROP TO
10 KTS THEN BECOME 5 TO 10 KTS BY 03Z. FURTHER VERRING TO NE OR
EAST LATE TONIGHT.

MOISTURE FOR SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY WITH HEATING. IF SKIES
BECOME BROKEN CEILINGS WILL BE VFR. TONIGHT SKIES CLEAR AGAIN. NO
FOG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS IN -RA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...



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