Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 040910
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER TWO DAYS OF CONVECTION
STAYING CONFINED ALONG THE NV BORDER...UPPER FLOW WILL BACK
SLIGHTLY TODAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REST
OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN FAR
SE OWYHEE COUNTY AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO WASHINGTON. AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM APPROACH...WE WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DRY AIR FROM THE SW
INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER. FOR TODAY...THE
WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR...PUTTING OUR HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY/S READINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
OWING TO CLOUDS AND WIND...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
TUE...WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...HIGHS WILL BE 7-15 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. THE LARGEST
CHANGES COME BE IN BAKER COUNTY OREGON...AND THE SMALLEST ALONG
OUR EASTERN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SPLIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN SECTION OF THE SPLIT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF
THE SPLIT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THERE ARE BIG
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WENT TOWARD A MODEL BLEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS
OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



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