Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 031022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS
TODAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT FOR TODAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE TONIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE. THE
NAM MOS AND SREF MEAN HAVE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST
PART MONDAY. WE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF A SURFACE FEATURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SURFACE RIDGING LINGERING THROUGH THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND WITH MOISTURE EXTENDING FARTHER WESTWARD AND
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST SECTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION BEFORE SUNRISE...EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR FOG AT AGS
UNTIL AROUND 13Z. FEW OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS OR HIGH
CLOUDS LATER TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST. AIR MASS REMAINS DRY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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