Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 060535 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1235 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...APPEARS TO BE A CONSISTENT PATTERN WITH MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 12Z...AND VCSH AFTER 12Z...THEN VFR CIGS WITH SOME VCSH
SHIFTING WEST WITH THE AFTERNOON. AM USING 4KM MODEL REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT FOR VCSH...AND DID DECIDE TO PUT IN A TEMPO SHRA FOR KLRD
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEST DURING THE DAY (OTHERS WILL
HAVE VCSH). MVFR CIGS RETURN EARLY EVENING TO EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS AT KVCT BEFORE THE END OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AGAIN...THINK DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH/SHRA IN THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS AND HAVE
RETAINED ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LASTLY...HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK
FOR WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG MID
LEVEL INVERSION. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE REGION BUT DO NOT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION AND
REMOVED THUNDER FROM TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME...WILL BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE REST
OF SOUTH TEXAS BY 02-03Z. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1200-1500
FEET OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES...MENTIONS VCSH IN CRP/VCT TAFS.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS TODAY WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 2500
FEET LATE MORNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDS BY 20Z WITH A
BROKEN LAYER AROUND 6-7 KFT WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL BEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNITL CIN INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
ACTIVITY. THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED WHEN
CONSIDERING MOST RECENT LAPS SBCAPE VALUES 1500J/KG OR LESS. SCA
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING OVER THE SRN
BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE REGION (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA (DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS) TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MSA OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCA CONDITIONS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 03-09Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
SIMILAR MSTR/INSTABILITY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION. WL RETAIN THE CFW FOR RIP
CURRENTS UNTIL 11Z WED CONSIDERING RECENT SWELL PERIODS/WAVE
WATCH OUTPUT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MIDLEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. A NEWLY FORMED SW-NE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BRINGING BOUTS OF DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST MEXICO THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BUT
FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES AND THE SUBTROPICAL
JET NOSING IN FROM THE WEST...MAY FIRE UP A BIT MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MEXICO IMPACTING THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
RUNS FOR MORE CONSISTENCY. OUTSIDE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM...BUT DID CUT BACK HIGHS FARTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVERAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. MODELS ARE
HINTING A LATE SEASON FRONT TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  86  75  86  75  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          72  86  72  85  73  /  10  20  10  20  20
LAREDO            72  92  74  91  74  /  20  20  20  20  30
ALICE             73  88  74  88  74  /  10  20  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          74  83  76  83  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           71  88  72  89  72  /  20  20  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        74  88  75  88  75  /  10  20  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  83  75  83  76  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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