Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271639

1139 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

Issued at 350 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

Chilly and dry northwest flow at the surface has kept temperatures
in the lower to middle 40s this morning, with scattered clouds. With
prevailing surface ridging for the first part of the week, expect
the E/NE winds to persist through at least mid week. The coolest
morning will likely occur Tuesday morning as temperatures are
forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. At this point
widespread frost is not anticipated, as temperatures will be too
warm, and winds should stay up around 5 kts, but can`t rule out a
very isolated area of frost or two near the IA/MO border where
sheltering from the wind and low terrain could contribute to
temperatures in the lower to middle 30s and some very patchy frost.

This dry pattern will likely persist until late this week, before
the pattern switches back to a potentially active pattern for the
Plains and the Lower Missouri River region. Leeside surface
troughing commences in the Thursday/Friday time range, which will
start the process of restocking the Plains with Gulf moisture. It
will take few days of this persistent southerly surface flow to get
any usable moisture into to the area, but by next weekend it looks
like enough moisture will make it into the area and the mean mid
level flow will change to more of a zonal orientation to introduce
some chance PoPs for the weekend. In the meantime expect very
pleasant conditions through the entire week, with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as surface
ridging continues. Northeast winds will back slightly while
decreasing around sunset. Some gusts up to 20 kts may be a factor
but will only occur periodically during the afternoon.




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