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FXUS64 KEPZ 062037
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
237 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE BORDERLAND THIS MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SPRING-TIME BREEZY AFTERNOONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY A PACIFIC LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM SWING BY TO
OUR NORTH AND INCREASES WINDS FOR THE REGION AS A COOL FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. ALL AREAS WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GILA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
PROVIDES OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF. THAT SCENARIO IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO STAY TUNED TO OUR UPDATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF A SHORT TRAIN OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
KEEPING SOME LOW AND MID CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY THE GILA AND SAC REGIONS. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE CONTENT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS FALLEN OFF ENOUGH THAT STORM POTENTIAL IS
VERY REMOTE...AND ONLY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR NW GILA FIRE
WEATHER ZONE. THUS NO POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LAST DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER A DRY
REGIME. DAILY MIXING WILL PULL DOWN MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WINDS UP A
BIT FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIODS. AFTERNOONS
WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE. WEATHER WILL BE
BENIGN AND NIL.

SATURDAY WE SEE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING EAST
OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT IS TRACKING THIS SYSTEM A BIT MORE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CONSEQUENCES ARE TO KEEP MORE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY WITH GUSTY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY THE
GILA REGION WILL SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR PCPN/TSTMS AS IT PASSES SAT
AFTERNOON. THUS POPS ONLY FOR THE GILA ZONES...ALL OTHER ZONE WILL
HAVE NO MENTION OF ANY PCPN. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL HELP PULL THE WINDS UP AND
CUT THE HEATING A BIT. LATEST MODELS ARE A BIT WARMER WITH
SATURDAY MAX TEMPS. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE LOWLANDS COOLED TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT NOW THEY ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE REGION WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MORE EACH DAY. PLENTY OF SUN
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. BENIGN WEATHER WILL DOMINATE AS A MINOR
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LASTLY...WE FOCUS ON TUE AND WED WHEN WE SEE THE NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK IN WITH A DRYLINE PRESSING IN FROM THE
EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
PUSH INTO AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS MODEL IS
BEARISH WHILE THE CURRENT ECMWF IS BULLISH. FOR NOW WE HAVE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST ZONES...ALL ZONES TO THE WEST ARE DRY FOR NOW. WE`LL
BE WATCHING AND ADJUSTING THE TUE AND WED PERIODS AS NEEDED.


14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/00Z-08/00Z...
A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PASS THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NMEX THIS EVENING TAILING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU PRD. FEW-SCT 070-100 AND SCT200-250 (EXCEPT BKN AT TIMES N OF
SVC-ALM LINE UNTIL 09Z). WINDS 240-27018G28KT THRU 09Z THEN
280-300/12KTS. WIND BECOMING 230/12G22KTS AFT 18Z. OCNL LGT/MDT
TURBC OVR/NR MTNS BLO 15K MSL THRU PD.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR THE MOST PART DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GILA REGION SATURDAY.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS FROM THE
WEST SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH AND OR REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

20 NOVLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  82  59  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  81  53  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  80  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  80  52  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  58  38  59  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  78  49  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  70  44  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  50  80  46  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               49  78  44  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  82  59  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  81  54  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            53  84  56  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              58  77  55  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  52  82  56  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            55  82  53  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  80  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  80  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   52  80  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  79  50  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  81  53  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  66  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               44  65  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                44  64  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  69  40  70  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  76  45  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  79  45  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            45  68  42  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  73  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   43  77  39  75  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              41  74  35  73  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 50  74  44  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  49  78  46  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  79  45  79  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  78  45  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  73  44  75  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/20




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