Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 190852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WHICH
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AT 500 MB WAS
LOCATED NEAR EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY
WEAKENING/MOVING THE LOW CENTER EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN OPEN
WAVE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE
LOW IS BEING FORCED EASTWARD BY A ANOTHER STRONG LOW DROPPING FROM
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...IT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE
LOW NEAR CHILDRESS WITH A WEAK HIGH NEAR HOUSTON. BEFORE THE
FROPA...BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SETUP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP SHOULD EQUATE TO WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER AND WILL UNDERCUT MAVMOS SLIGHTLY FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. THE FOCUS OF TODAYS FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP CUTOFF IN MOISTURE FROM OUR
WESTERN CWA TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP IT
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
COINCIDES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING
WILL BE TODAY WITH THE EXITING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. STORM
PROCESSES IN OUR CWA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BE MESOSCALE FORCES
SUCH AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
TAP INTO TO QUICKLY BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40
KNOTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS EAST OF AN AUSTIN TO SEGUIN TO
PLEASANTON LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE THREAT TODAY SHOULD BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LOW...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AFTER 00Z WITH ALL
STORMS EXITING THE CWA BY 06Z. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES WHICH LEAVES TODAYS AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TOUGH ONE AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ENABLE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. 850 FLOW WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY WITH 30-35 KNOTS PROGGED BY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TUES-THURSDAY. IT IS TOUGH TO
PIN DOWN SPECIFIC RAIN CHANCES AND LOCATIONS EACH DAY DURING THIS
PERIOD AT THE PRESENT TIME. BY FRIDAY...STRONGER UPPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH A COLD
FRONT TO GIVE MOST OF THE AREA ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN. IT
IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS
OR SEVERE CHANCES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  56  75  55  74 /  10  -    0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  55  74  52  74 /  10  -    0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  56  75  54  76 /  10  -    0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  52  73  53  74 /  -   -    0  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  59  77  59  78 /  -   -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  53  74  52  75 /  10  -    0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  57  76  54  75 /  -   -   -   20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  56  75  53  76 /  10  -    0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  57  74  56  76 /  20  20   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  58  75  56  75 /  10  -    0  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  59  75  56  76 /  10  -   -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29



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