Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210842
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR DULUTH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TODAY.
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND COOL NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY IN ERN ND/NW MN. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ARE NEAR A BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY TO JAMESTOWN LINE...WITH THE CLOUDS
HAVING BEEN SHIFTING A BIT SOUTHWEST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT AS
AN IMPULSE DROPS BACK SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTN INTO ERN ND AND THEN THIS EVENING INTO NW MN. WITH
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
MONDAY...BUT 30-35 KTS TO MIX AT 850-925 MB WILL ENSURE A WINDY
DAY ONCE AGAIN. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS MOS PROG WINDS OF 23-25 KTS ARE SEEN AT GFK/FAR. AT
THE PRESENT GIVEN BORDERLINE NATURE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY.
BUT IT WILL BE WINDY NONETHELESS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS VERY CLOSE TO
PREV FCST WITH ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTN RAIN
SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NW MN.

CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY
AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MORE PLEASANT DAY. THOUGH HIGH
TEMPS CLIMB JUST A FEW DEGREES INTO 40S. COLDEST NIGHT WED NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

SUNSHINE AND A TAD WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY. RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT OVER PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVER THE
AREA...BUT AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM AND ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THRU THE END OF
THE PERIOD...BUT AN INVERTED TROF WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL MN THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. POINTS ALG
AND WEST OF AN HCO-GFK-FAR LINE WILL SEE MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS AND
VFR VSBYS WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. SCT SKIES ALG AND WEST OF A DVL-JMS LINE WILL STEADILY
EDGE ACROSS EASTERN ND BY LATE MORNING AND ACROSS THE RRV INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY BLAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF TUESDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST






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