Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210314
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NOR UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 330 PM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING
MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLDER AIR MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL HELP DEEPEN A PACIFIC LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW HAS BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR FRONT JET STREAM AND RESIDES IN WEAK STEERING
FLOW.

FORECAST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT TRACKS AND
INTENSITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST INTO
ARIZONA. THE AMERICAN GFS MODEL PREDICTS A FASTER MOVEMENT WITH THIS
LOW AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THE
EUROPEAN MODEL. WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE AMERICAN GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS. THIS BLEND HELPS TO MINIMIZE TRACK ERRORS FROM
ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION AND IMPROVE OUR FORECAST IMPACTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUR FORECAST SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD AS SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...ANY SNOWFALL LIMITED TO
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN STARTING A WEEKEND
WARMING TREND. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS S-SW 10-20KT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...ONGOING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. DRYING TREND STARTS SATURDAY.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........41/ BOHLIN
AVIATION.......41
FIRE WEATHER...CLM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










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