Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 281451
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MORNING UPDATE...NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS MORNING BEYOND REMOVING
THE MENTION OF FOG. LOOKS LIKE A NICE TWO DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.  FRANSEN

CURRENT NIGHT-TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT AREA DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD JUST DRY
ENOUGH TO AVOID FOG FORMATION...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE
BAKER AREA SOUTH OF WIBAUX COUNTY WHERE FOG HAS JUST BARELY BEGUN
TO FORM. FOR OUR CWA...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY STILL FORM
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT IF ANY FOG DOES FORM IT IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS NEARLY FLAWLESS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A DESCENT-SIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SET TO IMPACT NE MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A
LIGHT SSE WIND BECOMING A BIT MORE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORT AND SOME PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING POSSIBLE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WIND COMING IN
LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

EVEN THOUGH SOME SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...I DO NOT EXPECT THAT
TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT MORE THAN OUR WESTERN ZONES AS THE
AVAILABLE CAPE AND OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK TO DRY UP
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT PUSH THE
COOL FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
0.05 OR 0.10 ACCUMULATION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOOK FOR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MONTANA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
WITH THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY LOOKS DRY.

A SHORTWAVE WITH IN THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS DIFFER
IN THAT THE GFS IS QUICK TO MOVES THIS WAVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS IT OVER MONTANA INTO MONDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION: UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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