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000
FXUS63 KGRB 100949
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER STATE THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...WITH AXIS OF HIGH EXPECTED OVER
STATE ON THURSDAY. FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING...ENDING OF PCPN
OVER AREA...CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT FAR NORTH CENTRAL.

NORTHERLY FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...PLENTY OF
LAKE CLOUDS SEEN MOVING SOUTH OFF SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN WI. AREA
RADARS SHOWING MAINLY FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN WI...THOUGH FEW
SNOW/LAKE BANDS CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER FAR
EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HEADLINES ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH LINGERING BANDS AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. WINDS
CREATING SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW THIS MORNING...WILL COVER
CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH SPS EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONDITIONS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT FAR NORTH CENTRAL AS WINDS
SHOWING SOME SHEAR IN PROFILE AND AIR MASS NOT OVERLY COLD. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALSO POINT TO STAYING WITH LOW CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RUN NEAR NORMS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS
RUNNING ON COLD SIDE WITH EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS AND FRESH SNOW
COVER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN SHAPING UP DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW
WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST COAST RIDGE AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
TROUGH. FIRST SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND THEN PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION
WILL GET INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS A
CONCERN...BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTIONS OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP UP SNOW CHANCES ACROSS VILAS
IF THE MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE RUNS TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
MOVE SOUTH OFF LAKES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TODAY TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR MASS/HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
CREATE SOME DRIFTING OF NEW SNOW TODAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
TE/ECKBERG