Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181748
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX SHOULD START SEEING
SOME INTERMITTENT BREAKS OF SUN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TO SEE
IMPROVING CIG HEIGHTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST...SO ADDITIONAL HEATING ALONG WITH
APPROACHING S/W FROM MID TX COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN - ESP SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-LIBERTY
LINE. (THIS IS ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME SIG WX
YDAY SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS.) AREAS FURTHER N
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NW TX. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
DEVELOPING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OUT THERE THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY MAKING
IT ESE TOWARD SE TX LATE EVNG & OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
PLAYS OUT, BUT WENT AHEAD AND THREW THE POTENTIAL OF THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 9-2AM TIMEFRAME IN THE CLL, UTS, CXO TAFS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS ATTM BUT FEEL IT`S ENOUGH TO
BEGIN MENTIONING. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST. THE
AIRMASS ALONG ABOUT A TWO-TIER COUNTY WIDTH ALONG THE COAST WAS
FAIRLY MOIST. NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS BACK INLAND. WATER VAPOR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE 06Z TEXAS TECH WRF AND 15Z HRRR BOTH FORECASTED BEST
CHANCES STARTING NEAR THE COAST BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

TWEAKED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  62  85  56  75 /  30  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  64  84  60  78 /  50  30  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  69  81  67  75 /  40  30  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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