Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 070540
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
PERIODIC BOUTS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH MAY GIVE ENOUGH OF A GLANCING BLOW FOR
SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT SOME FROM WEST-
EAST...WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH...YIELDING
MODEST-STRONG INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CAP BY PEAK HEATING
ALONG/WEST OF I-135. WEAK/MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE IN CONCERT
WITH GLANCING BLOW FROM HIGH PLAINS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR MORE
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE ALONG DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS CLOSER TO UPPER FORCING.
INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS PROGGED BY ALL THE GUIDANCE.
CONSEQUENTLY...ANY DISCRETE STORM MOVING/DEVELOPING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL CARRY THE THREAT FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
BEFORE 10 PM GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I- 135. NOT EXPECTING LONG-
TRACK TORNADOES GIVEN WEAKER MID/UPPER FLOW.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES CENTRAL KS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE LACK OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OTHER THAN SUBTLE RIPPLES ALOFT...EXPECTED STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD FAVOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KS
ALONG FRONT BY MID- LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR STRONG/SEVER MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
MATERIALIZE...MAIN THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THU EVENING/NIGHT...DUE TO WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PLACEMENT FRIDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI STORMS.
NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOUNDARY TO REMAIN DRAPED/STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO ENCROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LIKE
THU...THINKING MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME STILL HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...AS POWERFUL
SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES...WHICH WILL
HEAVILY INFLUENCE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND PLACEMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY...WILL NOT YET GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN SPECIFICS
SURROUNDING THIS PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A RETURN TO A MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

CONVECTION AND LOW CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST
CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR AT THE ONSET...BUT EXPECTING LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING. CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  78  61  75 /  60  50  60  60
HUTCHINSON      62  76  59  73 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          61  76  60  73 /  70  50  60  50
ELDORADO        63  77  61  75 /  60  50  70  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  79  62  77 /  60  50  70  60
RUSSELL         58  67  56  70 /  70  40  50  70
GREAT BEND      59  70  56  70 /  60  50  50  70
SALINA          61  74  59  72 /  70  50  60  50
MCPHERSON       61  75  59  72 /  70  50  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     65  79  64  78 /  60  50  70  60
CHANUTE         65  79  63  78 /  60  60  70  60
IOLA            64  79  62  77 /  60  60  70  50
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  63  78 /  60  60  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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