Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 280923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRECK EASTWARD TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. A COOL DAY IS ON TAP
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS EVENING
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PWATS
FALLING BELOW AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE RAINSHOWERS
BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PWATS RANGING FROM .75 - .50 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA./15/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

FOLKS IN THE ARKLAMISS HOPING FOR A CHANCE TO DRY OUT WILL GET THEIR
WISH AS WE WRAP UP APRIL 2015. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEPART TO THE EAST...AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CHILLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURS/FRI NIGHTS WITH SOME READINGS DOWN INTO THE 40S... BUT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND.
BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY...AND THIS SUGGESTS THAT SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THEN. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10-15KTS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. /15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  51  68  49 /  67  38  21   6
MERIDIAN      66  53  68  49 /  65  63  37  11
VICKSBURG     63  51  70  50 /  67  34  13   5
HATTIESBURG   70  53  69  51 /  61  35  21   6
NATCHEZ       64  49  69  50 /  61  25   9   3
GREENVILLE    62  50  69  50 /  55  47  14   4
GREENWOOD     64  50  69  49 /  50  54  19   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

15/EC/



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