Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 051924
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
324 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COAST...AND SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL
THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE A BIT LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT
MOVING ONSHORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S FAR INLAND...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFER SOME ON HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAHAMAS. THE NAM REMAINS FURTHEST WEST AND
STRONGEST...WITH THE DEEPEST CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN. OTHER MODELS REMAIN WEAKER AND
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE ECMWF WELL EAST OF THE WATERS. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL AVERAGE WITH BOTH INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL
POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTN. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER 70S COAST...AND LOWER/MID 80S FAR INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM HAVE SFC LOW MOVE
TOWARD 30 DEGS NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT...ABOUT 110 (NAM) TO 160
(GFS) MILES EAST OF PONTE VEDRA FLORIDA. THE ECMWF HAS A VERY WEAK
SFC LOW ABOUT 85 MILES EAST OF PONTE VEDRA. EITHER WAY...WITH OUR
REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WE WILL HAVE HAVE ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WITH NIL TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER
INLAND AREAS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SE GA AND SUWANNEE
VALLEY TO MID/UPPER ALONG THE ST JOHNS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
ON THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SUBSIDENT SIDE
OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING LOW WITH DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING
INLAND WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OFFSHORE THE GA/SC COAST WITH SFC WINDS BACKING TO A
LIGHT NW DIRECTION WITH PASSING ISOLD /WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRI & FRI NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF RETROGRADE THE SFC LOW TWD THE SOUTH
CAROLINA OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. IN BOTH SCENARIOS...NE
FL AND SE GA STAYS ON THE RELATIVELY DRY SW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE 15-25 PCT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SE GA HAVING SOME PASSING SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY TO UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT & SUN...FORECAST DEPENDS ULTIMATELY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE PROGGED SUB-TROPICAL LOW MEANDERING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA OFFSHORE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN STILL VERY LOW WITH
OUR REGION ON THE SW FLANK OF THE LOW. CONTINUED FORECAST FOR
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS A DIURNAL PATTERN AND ALSO INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED TS GIVEN THE MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS
WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

MON & TUE...THE SFC LOW TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH AXIS WHILE BREAKING
DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT CONTINUED WITH LOW
20-30% CHANCES GIVEN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPS WILL
FURTHER WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND TO LOWER 80S COAST WITH
MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL USE VCSH FOR THE NE FL SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. EAST WINDS 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN.&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS/SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WITH SCA POSSIBLE IF THE LOW TRACKS A BUT FURTHER WEST THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  84  60  84 /   0  10   0  10
SSI  67  76  65  76 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  65  81  63  82 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  70  78  66  79 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  63  84  61  85 /  10  20  20  20
OCF  64  86  63  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/CORDERO


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