Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 190227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

BUMPED POPS DOWN JUST A TAD CONSIDERING HOW QUICKLY SHOWERS IN TN
ARE DISSIPATING. ONLY OTHER UPDATE NEEDED WAS ALIGNING T AND TD
GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT OBS. SEND UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AND MOVED INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY MEASURABLE REPORTS OUT
OF THESE SHOWERS. POP GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FORECAST WISE AS
THEY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO HAVE NOT
MADE ANY CHANGES THERE. OTHERWISE...DID A DATA LOAD AND BLEND TO
UPDATED GRIDS WITH MOST RECENT OBS AND UPDATED TEMPS AND WINDS
USING BCCONSHORT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS COMING TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM12
MODELS...THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL THEN
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING RAINFALL BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY...AFTER THE SUN IS UP AND THE FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW WILL REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...PROVIDING A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WELL INTO
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
EJECT AND DAMPEN EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAS BEEN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THIS WAVE...AND ALSO KEEPING THE SURFACE
FEATURES MORE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER TO HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST TREND TO
BULK OF THE FORCING AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DRY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND
ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE TN
BORDER...SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND
13Z. THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE DETERIORATION SHOULD ARRIVE
FIRST AT WESTERN LOCATIONS...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS HOLDING OFF
LONGER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO OUR SE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC/SPOTTIER IN NATURE
FROM SW TO NE LATE IN THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE
FOR SOME PLACES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL


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