Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID
80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PARALLEL THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED WEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 28/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 28/03Z...AND MOVE FROM ABOUT 190/15KT...PERHAPS
REACHING THE VICINITY OF EITHER EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCLUSION IN ANY TERMINAL
FORECAST GROUPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED
IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH. THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 27TH IS 80
DEGREES...INITIALLY ESTABLISHED IN 1908 AND MOST RECENTLY OBSERVED
IN 1997. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80 88 78 87 / 20 30 40 50
MARATHON  81 91 78 88 / 20 30 40 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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