Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 251913
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...
The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.
Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.
Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.
Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.
BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.