Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 250010
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MIAMI-DADE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH VFR PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS ON SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN SE NEAR 10 KT ON
SAT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT KAPF LATE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 650 MB. THIS HAS
KEPT THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS. AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON, IT MAY ERODE
THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO, MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  78  93 /  20  20   0  10
MIAMI            75  90  76  94 /  30  10   0  10
NAPLES           74  88  79  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.