Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 040100
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE WRN GOMEX DRIFTS INTO THE W ATLC.
POSITION OF THE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED THE SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE PAST 24HRS...RESULTING IN A DEEP AND STEADY ERLY FLOW THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR. DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE REMAINS
IN SITU WITH KJAX/KTBW/KMFL SOUNDINGS MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND
0.70" AND A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR.

SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE M/U50S...SUGGESTING BLO CLIMO
MINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TIGHTER PGRAD SHOULD PREVENT
DECOUPLING WHILE THE ERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH MARINE
MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR (NEAR CLIMO)...AND IN THE M/U60S
ALONG THE COAST (3-6F DEG ABV CLIMO). BRIEF/ISOLD LOW-TOPPED COASTAL
SHRAS PSBL AS POCKETS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE IN
THE DEEP ERLY FLOW...BUT THE SMOTHERING EFFECTS OF THE H85-H70
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY MEANINGFUL VERTICAL MOTION.
MEASURABLE RAIN LARGELY UNEXPECTED...NO PLANS TO INTRODUCE PRECIP TO
THE FCST.

WILL UPDATE ZONE FCST TO REMOVE RIP CURRENT HEADLINES...OTHERWISE NO
SIG CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 05/00Z
SFC WNDS: THRU 04/14Z...E/NE 4-8KTS. BTWN 04/14-04/17Z...E/NE
8-12KTS. AFT 03/17Z...E 14-17KTS WITH G22-25KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: VFR ALL SITES...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
LCL PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING
THE ERN SEABOARD PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
FRESH ERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS TO 4-6FT AREAWIDE...DOMINANT PDS
ARND 12SEC. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY...NO SIG CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
THE EVNG UPDATE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY


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